Backtoast

Strategies

Trading strategies tested in 2026

Checked

Backtoast ran 60 published strategies through the same test. Every strategy that finished failed, including Bitcoin weekly time-series momentum (Liu & Tsyvinski), which had the highest yearly return in the set at +13.5%. A higher return is not a pass. You pay $99 for two full tests of your own strategy, and a pass is an offer of 30% of the profit Backtoast makes trading it with its own money.

StrategyTradesA yearTest
Bitcoin weekly time-series momentum (Liu & Tsyvinski)26+13.5%Failed
Volatility-managed market exposure60+11.0%Failed
Cboe S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite (BXMD): OTM covered call42+10.8%Failed
Antonacci Global Equities Momentum (Dual Momentum)10+9.3%Failed
Cboe S&P 500 BuyWrite (BXM): at-the-money covered call42+8.8%Failed
Bitcoin Monday effect (Caporale & Plastun)131+8.2%Failed
Bitcoin above its moving average (Detzel et al.)94+6.5%Failed
Cboe S&P 500 5% Put Protection (PPUT): protective put47+5.4%Failed
Cboe S&P 500 PutWrite (PUT): cash-secured at-the-money put47+5.3%Failed
Faber 10-month moving average (GTAA)25+4.4%Failed
Connors RSI(2)47+4.3%Failed
Larry Williams volatility breakout1081+2.5%Failed
G10 carry, top 3 vs bottom 3 (Deutsche Bank G10 Currency Harvest)21+2.3%Failed
tastytrade 16-delta short strangle, 45 DTE, managed at 50%58+2.2%Failed
Turn of the month60+2.1%Failed
Cboe S&P 500 Iron Condor (CNDR): monthly 20/5-delta iron condor47+2.0%Failed
Dollar carry trade10+1.5%Failed
Cboe S&P 500 95-110 Collar (CLL)16+1.3%Failed
Post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD)18803+0.4%Failed
Toby Crabel NR7 opening range breakout39+0.2%Failed
FOMC-day carry126+0.1%Failed
Gold autumn effect10-0.0%Failed
Moving-average crossover (5/20 days)338+0.0%Failed
tastytrade SPX put calendar, 60/30 DTE, 40 delta47-0.1%Failed
Larry Williams "Oops!" gap reversal59-0.3%Failed
Donchian 4-week rule437-0.5%Failed
Time-series momentum (TSMOM)101-0.6%Failed
Turtle Soup (Raschke)135-0.8%Failed
0DTE iron condor (Vilkov)949-1.2%Failed
ES overnight drift (2-3 a.m. ET)3865-1.7%Failed
Bollinger Method III (reversals)19-2.3%Failed
Option Alpha SPY put credit spread, 30 DTE, 30/10 delta283-2.3%Failed
Kathy Lien's inside-day breakout53-2.6%Failed
Cboe S&P 500 Iron Butterfly (BFLY): monthly ATM iron fly with 5% wings47-3.2%Failed
Market intraday momentum (last half hour)4971-3.3%Failed
George-Hwang 52-week-high momentum41108-3.7%Failed
Turtle System 1125-3.8%Failed
Filter rule (x% from the last peak or trough)395-3.9%Failed
Bitcoin after one-day overreactions (Caporale & Plastun)85-5.1%Failed
Jegadeesh-Titman momentum (cross-sectional)10238-5.1%Failed
80-20 (Raschke)655-5.3%Failed
Local-hours depreciation, EUR/USD2595-5.6%Failed
Cross-sectional currency momentum167-7.5%Failed
Market intraday momentum (first half-hour predicts last half-hour)1252-9.4%Failed
3-candle reversal (BestForexMethod)5506-13.4%Failed
Time-series momentum (trend)303-13.9%Failed
Currency value (5-year PPP change)36-15.2%Failed
Turtle Trading, System 1271-15.6%Failed
Cross-sectional 3-week momentum (Liu, Tsyvinski & Wu)14770-22.6%Failed
Bitcoin last-half-hour intraday momentum (Shen, Urquhart & Wang)905-31.8%Failed
Daily reversal in low-volume coins (Bianchi, Babiak & Dickerson)95844-52.0%Failed
Weekly contrarian on the top 100 coins (Kość, Sakowski & Ślepaczuk)4405-63.4%Failed
One-minute moving-average rule on Bitcoin (Corbet et al.)4735-90.0%Failed
Opening range breakout on Stocks in Play1936-92.5%Failed
FX fix reversal14286-100.0%Failed
Commodity carry––Not run
Perpetual-vs-spot no-arbitrage trade (He, Manela, Ross & von Wachter)––Not run
Bitcoin cash-and-carry funding harvest (Coinbase research)––Not run
Long straddle before earnings (Gao, Xing and Zhang 2018)––Not run
Pairs trading, distance method––Not run
Yearly return is after costs. Failed means it doesn't make enough per trade, or enough a year for the money it ties up, for Backtoast to trade it with its own money. A higher return is not a pass.

Backtoast

You pay $99 for two full tests of your own strategy, and a pass is an offer of 30% of the profit Backtoast makes trading it with its own money. You can still trade the strategy yourself.

The runs are Backtoast's, from 29 October 2026, after costs. Five strategies could not be run, and they sit at the bottom. By market: futures trading strategies tested in 2026, forex trading strategies tested in 2026, options trading strategies tested in 2026, crypto trading strategies tested in 2026 and stock trading strategies tested in 2026. Getting started: day trading for beginners and day trading stocks. Outside this list, and not run: golden cross and death cross, RSI divergence, fair value gap, order block and ICT trading strategy.

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